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V-Lab

T-Bull SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

170.74%

increased by 32.11%

1 Week

169.72%

increased by 31.09%

1 Month

169.14%

increased by 30.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of T-Bull SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8029
2.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3584
5.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2025
1.87*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-3.7877
-1.72*
γ27.1794
2.45**
γ3-6.2577
-3.79***
γ47.7261
4.44***
γ5-9.9759
-5.59***
γ67.9518
5.10***
γ7-3.9891
-2.78***
γ81.3104
1.16

Persistence:

0.561

Half-life:

1 days