V-Lab
Strong H Machinery Technology Cayman Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
19.79%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
21.82%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
23.01%
increased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6971 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2330 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3646 | 3.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 3.3632 | 4.04*** |
| γ2 | -5.7170 | -3.90*** |
| γ3 | 4.0793 | 2.60*** |
| γ4 | -2.0986 | -1.19 |
| γ5 | -0.9593 | -0.54 |
| γ6 | 2.8503 | 1.80* |
| γ7 | -1.4078 | -0.75 |
| γ8 | 0.1863 | 0.11 |
| γ9 | -1.1613 | -0.84 |
| γ10 | 1.0656 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.598
Half-life:
1 days
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