V-Lab
Strong H Machinery Technology Cayman Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.07%
increased by 2.16%
1 Week
21.10%
increased by 3.19%
1 Month
21.72%
increased by 3.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2016 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7341 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2320 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3647 | 3.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 3.4731 | 4.13*** |
| γ2 | -5.8772 | -3.95*** |
| γ3 | 4.1514 | 2.61*** |
| γ4 | -2.1173 | -1.20 |
| γ5 | -0.9478 | -0.54 |
| γ6 | 2.7599 | 1.79* |
| γ7 | -1.2595 | -0.69 |
| γ8 | 0.1030 | 0.07 |
| γ9 | -1.1376 | -0.82 |
| γ10 | 1.0348 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.597
Half-life:
1 days
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