V-Lab
Strong H Machinery Technology Cayman Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.56%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
20.07%
increased by 2.45%
1 Month
21.49%
increased by 3.87%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7061 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2317 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3621 | 3.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 3.4485 | 4.09*** |
| γ2 | -5.8493 | -3.93*** |
| γ3 | 4.1472 | 2.62*** |
| γ4 | -2.1149 | -1.20 |
| γ5 | -0.9519 | -0.54 |
| γ6 | 2.7618 | 1.80* |
| γ7 | -1.2527 | -0.69 |
| γ8 | 0.0861 | 0.06 |
| γ9 | -1.1010 | -0.79 |
| γ10 | 0.9941 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.594
Half-life:
1 days
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