V-Lab
Akita Bank Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
39.01%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Week
38.07%
decreased by 3.31%
1 Month
35.55%
decreased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2698 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8324 | 38.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0502 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1312 | 1.63 |
| γ3 | -0.1645 | -3.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.1474 | 3.54*** |
| γ5 | -0.0870 | -2.37** |
| γ6 | 0.0244 | 0.66 |
| γ7 | 0.0204 | 0.35 |
| γ8 | -0.0939 | -1.09 |
| γ9 | 0.1575 | 1.93* |
| γ10 | -0.1194 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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