Akita Bank Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
59.78%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
58.32%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Month
53.42%
decreased by 7.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 7.92 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.3183 | 4.74*** |
| αscore | 0.1022 | 7.68*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9645 | 123.40*** |
| νDF | 7.9233 | 1.52 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.3183 | 4.74*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1022 | 7.68*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9645 | 123.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9233 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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