V-Lab
Akita Bank Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
43.60%
decreased by 3.14%
1 Week
42.68%
decreased by 4.06%
1 Month
39.81%
decreased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8565 | 12.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 26.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9557 | 264.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9704 | 8.62*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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