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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

54.97%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

54.97%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

54.97%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run12.1852
0.06
αscore0.0000
0.00
βpersistence0.9851
0.40
νDF4.2136
0.07

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

12.1852
0.06
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0000
0.00
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9851
0.40
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2136
0.07

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days