V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
57.15%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
57.15%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
57.15%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.9631 | 0.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 0.47 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5851 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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