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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

56.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

56.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

56.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst12.7188
0.20
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9860
1.63
νDF3.7950
0.19

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.7188
0.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9860
1.63
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7950
0.19

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days