V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
58.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
58.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
58.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.67 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.5464 | 0.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9722 | 3.82*** |
| νDF | 3.6716 | 0.25 |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5464 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 3.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6716 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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