Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
54.97%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
54.97%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
54.97%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 12.1852 | 0.06 |
| αscore | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βpersistence | 0.9851 | 0.40 |
| νDF | 4.2136 | 0.07 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 12.1852 | 0.06 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 0.40 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2136 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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