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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

58.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

58.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

58.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026
Hessian SE

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst13.5464
0.28
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9722
3.82***
νDF3.6716
0.25

0.972

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.5464
0.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9722
3.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6716
0.25

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days