V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
56.61%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
56.61%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
56.61%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 3.80 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 12.7188 | 0.20 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9860 | 1.63 |
| νDF | 3.7950 | 0.19 |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.7188 | 0.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9860 | 1.63 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7950 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities