V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
55.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
55.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
55.60%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.2666 | 0.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9348 | 2.28** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8670 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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