Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
43.65%
decreased by 3.57%
1 Week
53.93%
increased by 6.71%
1 Month
59.32%
increased by 12.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.0941 | 3.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.4322 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.1541 | 0.82 |
| γleverage | 0.2524 | 0.26 |
0.586
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.0941 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4322 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1541 | 0.82 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2524 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.586
Half-life:
1 days
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