V-Lab
Virgo Global Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
63.11%
decreased by 6.51%
1 Week
61.96%
decreased by 7.66%
1 Month
58.23%
decreased by 11.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.10) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3192 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1669 | 35.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7939 | 62.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1008 | -3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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