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V-Lab

Virgo Global Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

63.11%

decreased by 6.51%

1 Week

61.96%

decreased by 7.66%

1 Month

58.23%

decreased by 11.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Virgo Global Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.10) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3192
4.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1669
35.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7939
62.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1008
-3.38***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days