V-Lab
Virgo Global Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
67.75%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Week
67.75%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
67.75%
decreased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1697 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9023 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.7454 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 7.4263 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -6.5955 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 9.5553 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -28.3640 | -0.01 |
| γ6 | 51.7466 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | -64.7675 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | 53.4792 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | -22.8734 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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