V-Lab
Volkswagen AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
24.88%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
25.44%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
27.04%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0812 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0938 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8598 | 63.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0411 | -0.71 |
| γ2 | 0.1429 | 1.55 |
| γ3 | -0.2029 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.1333 | 2.64*** |
| γ5 | 0.0173 | 0.35 |
| γ6 | -0.1414 | -2.99*** |
| γ7 | 0.1508 | 3.35*** |
| γ8 | -0.0526 | -1.27 |
| γ9 | -0.0368 | -0.77 |
| γ10 | 0.0436 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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