Volkswagen AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
36.04%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
35.99%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Month
35.82%
decreased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.7297 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 30.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9835 | 370.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8387 | 7.65*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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