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Saudi Industrial Export Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026

1 Day

64.48%

increased by 13.18%

1 Week

64.58%

increased by 13.28%

1 Month

64.98%

increased by 13.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Saudi Industrial Export Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 2005 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 3.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run22.3717
1.05
αscore0.1839
16.90***
βpersistence0.9874
82.47***
νDF3.6984
8.33***

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

22.3717
1.05
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1839
16.90***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9874
82.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6984
8.33***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days