Saudi Industrial Export Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
64.48%
increased by 13.18%
1 Week
64.58%
increased by 13.28%
1 Month
64.98%
increased by 13.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 3.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 22.3717 | 1.05 |
| αscore | 0.1839 | 16.90*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9874 | 82.47*** |
| νDF | 3.6984 | 8.33*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 22.3717 | 1.05 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1839 | 16.90*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 82.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6984 | 8.33*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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