V-Lab
Saudi Industrial Export Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.25%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Week
40.86%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
42.99%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 32% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1707 | 8.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 19.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 132.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0776 | 3.99*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7939 | 24.08*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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