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V-Lab

Saudi Industrial Export Co APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

40.25%

decreased by 1.97%

1 Week

40.86%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Month

42.99%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Saudi Industrial Export Co APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 2005 to Jul 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 32% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1707
8.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0998
19.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8884
132.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0776
3.99***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7939
24.08***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days