Saudi Industrial Export Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
47.58%
increased by 7.23%
1 Week
47.68%
increased by 7.33%
1 Month
48.04%
increased by 7.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 14, 2005 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1826 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0753 | 2.58** |
| βGARCH | 0.8916 | 35.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0299 | 0.76 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1826 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0753 | 2.58** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8916 | 35.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0299 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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