V-Lab
Varopakorn Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
57.13%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
58.71%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
63.27%
increased by 4.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9284 | 4.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1565 | 4.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8171 | 30.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0323 | -0.57 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9284 | 4.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1565 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8171 | 30.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0323 | -0.57 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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