V-Lab
Varopakorn Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
50.37%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
52.74%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
59.33%
increased by 7.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9411 | 4.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1575 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8151 | 30.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.0318 | -0.56 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9411 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1575 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8151 | 30.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0318 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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