Varopakorn Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.39%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
44.15%
increased by 3.13%
1 Month
53.95%
increased by 12.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 1992 to Oct 22, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9375 | 4.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1578 | 4.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8152 | 30.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.0326 | -0.57 |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9375 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1578 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8152 | 30.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0326 | -0.57 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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