V-Lab
Range International Limited GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
151.67%
decreased by 6.37%
1 Week
153.33%
decreased by 4.71%
1 Month
159.73%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Sep 14, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 453 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~453 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1460 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0863 | 1.61 |
| βGARCH | 0.9053 | 29.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.0139 | 0.17 |
0.998
Persistence453d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1460 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 29.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0139 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
453 days
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