V-Lab
Range International Limited GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
149.93%
increased by 12.15%
1 Week
151.60%
increased by 13.82%
1 Month
158.01%
increased by 20.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 410 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~410 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1486 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0874 | 1.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.9052 | 29.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0116 | 0.15 |
0.998
Persistence410d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1486 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0874 | 1.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 29.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
410 days
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