V-Lab
Range International Limited Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
253.43%
decreased by 5.33%
1 Week
253.55%
decreased by 5.21%
1 Month
254.01%
decreased by 4.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1178 | 12.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0458 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9581 | 323.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0078 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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