V-Lab
Range International Limited APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
166.22%
1 Week
167.19%
1 Month
170.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4748 | 0.92 |
| αARCH | 0.0726 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9274 | 37.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.2292 | 0.84 |
| δpower | 1.5400 | 2.88*** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4748 | 0.92 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9274 | 37.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2292 | 0.84 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5400 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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