COMSYS Holdings Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
30.05%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
30.49%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
32.06%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 138% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0566 | 14.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 36.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9032 | 323.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3267 | 18.78*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2794 | 29.25*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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