V-Lab
SAP SE APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
43.00%
decreased by 3.46%
1 Week
43.15%
decreased by 3.31%
1 Month
43.66%
decreased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 84% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0807 | 18.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 31.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 202.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2879 | 13.77*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0321 | 32.67*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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