SAP SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
28.42%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Week
28.58%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
28.98%
decreased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0300 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1165 | 7.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8089 | 41.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0272 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | -0.0197 | -0.32 |
| γ3 | -0.0814 | -2.02** |
| γ4 | 0.1471 | 5.02*** |
| γ5 | -0.1226 | -4.73*** |
| γ6 | 0.1061 | 2.99*** |
| γ7 | -0.0910 | -2.03** |
| γ8 | 0.0400 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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