V-Lab
SAP SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.86%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
29.02%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
29.40%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0467 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8069 | 41.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0294 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -0.0234 | -0.39 |
| γ3 | -0.0783 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.1445 | 4.91*** |
| γ5 | -0.1210 | -4.68*** |
| γ6 | 0.1050 | 2.98*** |
| γ7 | -0.0904 | -2.01** |
| γ8 | 0.0396 | 1.14 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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