V-Lab
SAP SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
57.26%
increased by 24.34%
1 Week
54.35%
increased by 21.43%
1 Month
46.16%
increased by 13.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0475 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8079 | 41.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0295 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -0.0232 | -0.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0793 | -1.97** |
| γ4 | 0.1457 | 4.95*** |
| γ5 | -0.1218 | -4.68*** |
| γ6 | 0.1055 | 2.97*** |
| γ7 | -0.0900 | -1.99** |
| γ8 | 0.0387 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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