V-Lab
SAP SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.11%
increased by 8.26%
1 Week
48.73%
increased by 6.88%
1 Month
45.88%
increased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 286% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0491 | 14.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7827 | 129.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1402 | 20.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0096 | 3.54*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0158 | 4.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9823 | 242.67*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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