DAX Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	81
αARCH	0.0899	4.94***
βGARCH	0.8442	60.99***
γleverage	0.0980	3.79***
λ₁tau intercept	8.2265	5.35***
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0000	0.00
λ₃tau persistence	0.0133	0.03

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	81
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0899	4.94***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8442	60.99***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0980	3.79***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	8.2265	5.35***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0000	0.00
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.0133	0.03

V-Lab

SAP SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

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News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

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