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V-Lab

SAP SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

50.11%

increased by 8.26%

1 Week

48.73%

increased by 6.88%

1 Month

45.88%

increased by 4.03%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SAP SE MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 286% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0491
14.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7827
129.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1402
20.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0096
3.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0158
4.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9823
242.67***

Persistence:

0.902

Half-life:

7 days