Dongbang Agro Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.08%
1 Week
8.81%
1 Month
10.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 43% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2492 | 34.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6869 | 89.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0745 | -7.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0020 | 4.00*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0227 | 9.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9773 | 366.84*** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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