Dongbang Agro Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
9.25%
1 Week
10.05%
1 Month
13.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.017 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0183 | 8.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1463 | 50.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8711 | 406.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2007 | -6.46*** |
Persistence:
1.017
Half-life:
-
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