Dongbang Agro Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
7.11%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
7.48%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
8.34%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2634 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2022 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7237 | 32.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0073 | -0.16 |
| γ2 | 0.0852 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.2302 | -5.17*** |
| γ4 | 0.2672 | 5.50*** |
| γ5 | -0.2539 | -4.27*** |
| γ6 | 0.3282 | 5.43*** |
| γ7 | -0.3105 | -5.07*** |
| γ8 | 0.2054 | 3.38*** |
| γ9 | -0.2181 | -3.43*** |
| γ10 | 0.2232 | 4.66*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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