Dongbang Agro Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.30%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
6.45%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
6.81%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2294 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2028 | 9.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7266 | 33.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0371 | -0.82 |
| γ2 | 0.1383 | 2.08** |
| γ3 | -0.2735 | -6.04*** |
| γ4 | 0.3032 | 6.15*** |
| γ5 | -0.2819 | -4.69*** |
| γ6 | 0.3474 | 5.69*** |
| γ7 | -0.3191 | -5.11*** |
| γ8 | 0.1989 | 3.15*** |
| γ9 | -0.1850 | -2.50** |
| γ10 | 0.1200 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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