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V-Lab

Siemens AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

29.60%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

30.13%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

31.79%

increased by 1.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Siemens AG SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0091
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0556
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9145
82.32***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0517
1.11
γ20.0308
0.40
γ3-0.2408
-4.74***
γ40.2930
7.22***
γ5-0.2300
-5.00***
γ60.1424
3.18***
γ7-0.0414
-0.97
γ8-0.0165
-0.36
γ90.0299
0.49

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days