V-Lab
Siemens AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.17%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
27.64%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
28.73%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0185 | 2.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8694 | 57.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0815 | 6.12*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0093 | 1.70* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0252 | 2.89*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9718 | 101.07*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 2.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8694 | 57.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0815 | 6.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0093 | 1.70* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0252 | 2.89*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9718 | 101.07*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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