V-Lab
Siemens AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.51%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
29.26%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
31.00%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0184 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8689 | 130.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0823 | 20.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0092 | 2.50** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0251 | 2.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9720 | 98.10*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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