Siemens AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.22%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
35.32%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
35.47%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0183 | 8.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8685 | 130.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0828 | 20.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0091 | 2.47** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0253 | 2.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9719 | 97.59*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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