V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
90.01%
increased by 3.23%
1 Week
96.54%
increased by 9.76%
1 Month
104.79%
increased by 18.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.6104 | 44.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.3895 | 33.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 47.2221 |
0.805
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6104 | 44.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3895 | 33.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 47.2221 |
Persistence:
0.805
Half-life:
3 days
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