V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
60.28%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
58.22%
decreased by 3.55%
1 Month
51.56%
decreased by 10.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0162 | 0.65 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9869 | 72.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0162 | -0.71 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1028 | 0.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6240 | 2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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