V-Lab
Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
143.90%
1 Week
120.35%
1 Month
114.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5419 | 147.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -113.61*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0901 | 2.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9099 | 15.89*** |
Persistence:
0.292
Half-life:
1 days
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