Empa Elektronik Sanayi VE Ticaret AS AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
61.68%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
78.29%
increased by 16.09%
1 Month
93.44%
increased by 31.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.1464 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.3720 | 5.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3873 | 7.18*** |
| γleverage | -0.9667 | -1.32 |
0.759
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.1464 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3720 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3873 | 7.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9667 | -1.32 |
Persistence:
0.759
Half-life:
3 days
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