Denka Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
40.49%
increased by 1.24%
1 Week
40.34%
increased by 1.09%
1 Month
39.87%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.99) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0824 | 11.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 30.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8778 | 301.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9863 | 19.16*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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