V-Lab
Continental AG AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
27.21%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
27.71%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
29.31%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.15) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0402 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0705 | 10.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9029 | 114.34*** |
| γleverage | 1.1506 | 5.69*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0402 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0705 | 10.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9029 | 114.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.1506 | 5.69*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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