Continental AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
30.35%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Week
30.51%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Month
31.08%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 5.04 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.8968 | 1.65* |
| αARCH | 0.0665 | 7.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9844 | 99.88*** |
| νDF | 5.0395 | 2.35** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8968 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0665 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9844 | 99.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0395 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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