Freehold Royalties Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.76%
1 Week
16.16%
1 Month
17.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.1157 | 1.50 |
| αscore | 0.0669 | 8.82*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9918 | 186.59*** |
| νDF | 6.3763 | 2.02** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.1157 | 1.50 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0669 | 8.82*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9918 | 186.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3763 | 2.02** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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