V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
1 Week
19.52%
1 Month
20.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0121 | 1.38 |
| αARCH | 0.0674 | 8.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9902 | 146.39*** |
| νDF | 5.2867 | 2.57** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0121 | 1.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 8.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 146.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2867 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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