V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.46%
1 Week
20.74%
1 Month
21.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0167 | 1.39 |
| αARCH | 0.0677 | 8.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9902 | 147.84*** |
| νDF | 5.3082 | 2.57** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0167 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 147.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3082 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
Other Freehold Royalties Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities