V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.79%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
23.00%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
23.78%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0486 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 33.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 587.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2942 | 10.28*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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