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V-Lab
V-Lab

Freehold Royalties Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.12%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

18.72%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

20.55%

increased by 2.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Freehold Royalties Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6014
5.54***
αARCH0.0729
6.69***
βGARCH0.8972
60.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4454
-3.61***
γ20.6031
3.10***
γ3-0.1079
-0.91
γ4-0.1431
-1.40
γ50.0961
0.88
γ60.1130
1.07
γ7-0.2441
-2.06**
γ80.2471
2.21**
γ9-0.3192
-3.42***
γ100.4379
3.60***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6014
5.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
6.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8972
60.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4454
-3.61***
γ20.6031
3.10***
γ3-0.1079
-0.91
γ4-0.1431
-1.40
γ50.0961
0.88
γ60.1130
1.07
γ7-0.2441
-2.06**
γ80.2471
2.21**
γ9-0.3192
-3.42***
γ100.4379
3.60***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days