V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.12%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
18.72%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
20.55%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6014 | 5.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0729 | 6.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8972 | 60.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4454 | -3.61*** |
| γ2 | 0.6031 | 3.10*** |
| γ3 | -0.1079 | -0.91 |
| γ4 | -0.1431 | -1.40 |
| γ5 | 0.0961 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | 0.1130 | 1.07 |
| γ7 | -0.2441 | -2.06** |
| γ8 | 0.2471 | 2.21** |
| γ9 | -0.3192 | -3.42*** |
| γ10 | 0.4379 | 3.60*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6014 | 5.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8972 | 60.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4454 | -3.61*** |
| γ2 | 0.6031 | 3.10*** |
| γ3 | -0.1079 | -0.91 |
| γ4 | -0.1431 | -1.40 |
| γ5 | 0.0961 | 0.88 |
| γ6 | 0.1130 | 1.07 |
| γ7 | -0.2441 | -2.06** |
| γ8 | 0.2471 | 2.21** |
| γ9 | -0.3192 | -3.42*** |
| γ10 | 0.4379 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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