V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.88%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
20.23%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
21.34%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 317% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 317% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 3.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8415 | 40.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0970 | 5.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0298 | 2.01** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0574 | 3.03*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9348 | 43.45*** |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8415 | 40.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0970 | 5.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0298 | 2.01** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0574 | 3.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9348 | 43.45*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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