V-Lab
Freehold Royalties Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
increased by 1.51%
1 Week
19.67%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
21.00%
increased by 3.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 20, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 331% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 331% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0297 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8428 | 41.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.0983 | 5.33*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0294 | 2.00** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0574 | 3.03*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9348 | 43.52*** |
0.922
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0297 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8428 | 41.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0983 | 5.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0294 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0574 | 3.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9348 | 43.52*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
8 days
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