Kcl Infra Project Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.05%
1 Week
41.41%
1 Month
44.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2046 | 26.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7260 | 95.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0379 | -8.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9816 | 1.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8921 | 29.05*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
7 days
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