V-Lab
Kcl Infra Project Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
65.35%
decreased by 7.79%
1 Week
63.86%
decreased by 9.28%
1 Month
59.85%
decreased by 13.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2112 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1746 | 7.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7545 | 18.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1649 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | 0.3931 | 2.02** |
| γ3 | -0.3061 | -1.82* |
| γ4 | -0.3572 | -1.89* |
| γ5 | 1.2177 | 6.10*** |
| γ6 | -1.2658 | -5.73*** |
| γ7 | 0.6092 | 2.85*** |
| γ8 | -0.1526 | -1.06 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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