V-Lab
Kcl Infra Project Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
40.69%
increased by 1.07%
1 Week
41.87%
increased by 2.25%
1 Month
44.72%
increased by 5.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2107 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1746 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7533 | 18.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1657 | -1.33 |
| γ2 | 0.3907 | 2.02** |
| γ3 | -0.2920 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | -0.3828 | -2.08** |
| γ5 | 1.2311 | 6.21*** |
| γ6 | -1.2348 | -5.39*** |
| γ7 | 0.5346 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -0.0838 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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