Kcl Infra Project Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.65%
decreased by 3.85%
1 Week
42.72%
decreased by 2.78%
1 Month
45.36%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2198 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1738 | 7.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7568 | 18.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1660 | -1.31 |
| γ2 | 0.3888 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -0.2776 | -1.65* |
| γ4 | -0.4127 | -2.23** |
| γ5 | 1.2532 | 6.24*** |
| γ6 | -1.2264 | -5.06*** |
| γ7 | 0.5118 | 2.21** |
| γ8 | -0.0724 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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