V-Lab
Kcl Infra Project Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
39.05%
increased by 1.01%
1 Week
39.67%
increased by 1.63%
1 Month
42.07%
increased by 4.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0973 | 12.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1521 | 18.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8551 | 238.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0143 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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