V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
91.41%
decreased by 7.48%
1 Week
93.03%
decreased by 5.86%
1 Month
98.95%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8141 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1271 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8174 | 101.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0976 | 3.02*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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