Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
61.53%
decreased by 4.11%
1 Week
64.30%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Month
73.84%
increased by 8.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8308 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.1244 | 2.55** |
| βGARCH | 0.8149 | 25.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.1038 | 0.82 |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8308 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1244 | 2.55** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8149 | 25.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1038 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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