V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.34%
decreased by 2.74%
1 Week
52.07%
increased by 0.99%
1 Month
64.24%
increased by 13.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8264 | 2.32** |
| αARCH | 0.1244 | 2.55** |
| βGARCH | 0.8159 | 25.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.1026 | 0.81 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8264 | 2.32** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1244 | 2.55** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8159 | 25.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1026 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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