V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
52.85%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
56.32%
increased by 2.29%
1 Month
68.38%
increased by 14.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 69% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7720 | 8.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1383 | 10.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8126 | 100.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0952 | 3.19*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
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