V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
70.14%
decreased by 4.50%
1 Week
71.61%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Month
75.88%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2936 | 2.07** |
| αARCH | 0.1584 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7808 | 16.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.0335 | 0.36 |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2936 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1584 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7808 | 16.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0335 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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