V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
47.27%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Week
51.79%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
66.51%
increased by 16.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~161 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5567 | 1.41 |
| αARCH | 0.2026 | 6.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7931 | 27.27*** |
| γleverage | 1.3590 | 1.71* |
0.996
Persistence161d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5567 | 1.41 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2026 | 6.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7931 | 27.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.3590 | 1.71* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
Other Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on International Equities