V-Lab
Abionyx Pharma SA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
80.65%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
99.95%
increased by 17.99%
1 Month
134.25%
increased by 52.29%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.16) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4340 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3450 | 12.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5650 | 35.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1647 | -4.12*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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