Abionyx Pharma SA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
77.93%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
99.04%
increased by 19.21%
1 Month
135.96%
increased by 56.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7143 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3470 | 12.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5643 | 35.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1862 | -4.02*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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