Abionyx Pharma SA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
64.06%
decreased by 35.55%
1 Week
78.76%
decreased by 20.85%
1 Month
86.11%
decreased by 13.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2016 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0254 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5071 | 3.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0619 | 1.07 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 53.2539 | 5.69*** |
| γ2 | -82.1595 | -5.71*** |
| γ3 | 40.2833 | 3.36*** |
| γ4 | -16.7781 | -1.32 |
| γ5 | 14.6667 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -16.3622 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 7.1431 | 1.04 |
| γ8 | 5.9771 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
0.569
Half-life:
1 days
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