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V-Lab

Ctac NV Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

102.37%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

102.38%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

102.38%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1902
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ150.1692
0.00
γ2-123.2694
-0.04
γ3198.9421
0.06

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days