V-Lab
Ctac NV Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
102.37%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
102.38%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
102.38%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1902 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 50.1692 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -123.2694 | -0.04 |
| γ3 | 198.9421 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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