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V-Lab

Ctac NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

47.87%

increased by 2.37%

1 Week

49.16%

increased by 3.66%

1 Month

49.46%

increased by 3.96%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Ctac NV MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3139
3.88***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.7423
2.42**

Persistence:

0.157

Half-life:

0 days