Ctac NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.87%
increased by 2.37%
1 Week
49.16%
increased by 3.66%
1 Month
49.46%
increased by 3.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3139 | 3.88*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.7423 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.157
Half-life:
0 days
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