Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.84%
1 Week
30.05%
1 Month
30.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 16% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 27.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9013 | 262.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0105 | -2.42** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0182 | 6.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0059 | 4.09*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9908 | 513.09*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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