Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
33.58%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
33.52%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
33.32%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8730 | 6.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 8.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9059 | 84.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0020 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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