Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
29.73%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Week
29.15%
decreased by 2.97%
1 Month
27.47%
decreased by 4.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0813 | 18.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1881 | 62.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7964 | 229.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0241 | 3.40*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1883 | 20.11*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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