Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.98%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
31.51%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Month
30.06%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9413 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0701 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 | 60.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0022 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0681 | 0.94 |
| γ3 | -0.1772 | -4.24*** |
| γ4 | 0.1908 | 4.58*** |
| γ5 | -0.0899 | -2.35** |
| γ6 | -0.0339 | -0.89 |
| γ7 | 0.0766 | 2.42** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities