Wuliangye Yibin Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.74%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
27.58%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
27.07%
decreased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9428 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0696 | 7.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8851 | 60.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 0.0654 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -0.1764 | -4.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.1903 | 4.57*** |
| γ5 | -0.0889 | -2.33** |
| γ6 | -0.0355 | -0.93 |
| γ7 | 0.0777 | 2.46** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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