V-Lab
Ctac NV Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
45.01%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Week
44.94%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Month
44.76%
decreased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8112 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 1.48 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8527 | 5.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.4936 | -1.08 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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